Fri. PM KTFA News Articles 7-26-19

KTFA

Samson » July 26th, 2019


IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iraq

July 26, 2019

On July 19, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Iraq.

An improved security situation and the recovery in oil prices have improved near-term vulnerabilities. Large fiscal and current account surpluses—around 8 and 6 percent of GDP, respectively—were recorded in 2018, allowing the government to retire domestic debt and accumulate fiscal buffers. Gross international reserves reached $65 billion by end-2018.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .

IMF Communications Department

MEDIA RELATIONS LINK

JJonesMX » July 26th, 2019

The big one, with all the information IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION WITH FULL TEXT (PDF)

Snips...

prices of the daily bulletin of gold & main currencies published on the CBI website (www.cbi.iq).

The CBI provides foreign exchange at the official exchange rate for permissible transactions through its daily auctions (allocations), establishing a peg. However, because certain transactions are excluded from access to the CBI auctions, many transactions take place at parallel market exchange rates.

The CBI publishes the daily volume of the auction allocation on its website.

Iraq continues to avail itself of the transitional arrangements under Article XIV, Section 2 but no longer maintains any exchange restrictions or multiple currency practices subject to Article XIV, Section 2, and currently maintains one multiple currency practice (MCP) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII, Section 3.

The MCP arises from the lack of a mechanism to ensure that the exchange rate at the CBI foreign exchange window and the market rates (retail exchange rates of commercial banks and exchange bureaus for the sale of foreign currency from sources other than the CBI foreign exchange window) do not deviate from each other by more than 2 percent.

A previously identified exchange restriction arising from an Iraqi balance owed to Jordan under an inoperative bilateral payment agreement has been eliminated.

Article IV Consultation

Upon the approval of the 36-month Stand-By Arrangement on July 7, 2016, Iraq was placed on the 24-month consultation cycle. The last Article IV consultation was concluded on August 1, 2017, along with the Second Review under the Three-Year Stand-by Arrangement. The staff report

(IMF Country Report No. 17/251) was published on August 9, 2017, and is available on the internet.

Resident Representative

https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/CR/2019/1IRQEA2019001.ashx

Samson » July 26th, 2019

Shanghai to host US-China trade talks next week

25th July, 2019

US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said Wednesday that two days of talks between US and Chinese officials will be held in Shanghai early next week to seek progress in the year-long trade dispute between the two countries. It would be the first direct meeting between the two sides since the collapse of the talks in May after US President Donald Trump accused Beijing of backtracking on its commitments.

Mnuchin said he would head with US Trade Representative Robert Leahhizer the visiting US delegation to China from Monday for talks on Tuesday and Wednesday. He told CNBC that he hoped to make progress, but there were "a lot of issues" involved, so he expected another round of talks later in Washington, but stressed that "our return to the table at the direction of the two presidents Important".

Senior officials have held telephone conversations twice over the past two weeks in a bid to relaunch negotiations. During a meeting in Japan last month, the US president and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to avoid further escalation in the year-long trade dispute amid efforts by both sides to revive negotiations. The two countries exchanged customs duties on $ 360 billion worth of trade, but Trump also threatened to impose more duties on other Chinese goods.

Mnuchin hinted that national security concerns that prompted Washington to impose severe sanctions on China's large telecom group Huawei are separate from trade talks. But he played down concerns about any link between Google and Beijing. "We are not aware of Google's activity with the Chinese government in a worrying way," he said. Last week, Trump said he wanted his administration to "consider" whether Google was working with the Chinese government, which the American Internet giant quickly denied.

On the other hand, the Chinese government has agreed that five Chinese companies will buy about 3 million tons of US soybeans without import duty retaliation duties, while trade negotiations between the two countries continue. LINK

US official: Trade agreement with Canada and Mexico will prevent the economic recession

25th July, 2019

A US official said that the approval of the trade agreement between the United States and Mexico and Canada will provide a strong boost to the US economy and help avoid a recession

Thomas Donohue, chief executive of the US Chamber of Commerce, said Thursday that moving ahead with the US FTA helps pave the way for trade agreements with theEU, Japan and other countries

"This is a key element in keeping us out of recession," Donohue said after a press conference with more than a dozen other trade groups and groups pressing for approval of the tripartite agreement

The report was reported by the White House planned to send the agreement, which replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), to Congress after Sept. 1 to vote by the end of this year

The United States, Canada and Mexico signed a new agreement instead of the NAFTA last year against Trump's desire to modify trade rules among North American nations LINK

Việt Nam’s foreign reserves hit record high $68 billion

24th July, 2019

Việt Nam’s foreign reserves hit a record high of US$68 billion at the end of June, revealed a report from the HCM City Banking University.

According to the report, foreign investment capital inflows have helped the country build up its foreign reserves to double the figure of three years ago.

The sufficient foreign reserves have been a key source to help the central bank stabilise the USD/VNĐ exchange rate, the report noted. The reserves would continue to be used for active intervention to the monetary market, ensuring currency stability, which suggests the Vietnamese đồng is likely to see minimal volatility over the coming months.

Both international and domestic experts have forecast the đồng to remain broadly stable against the greenback over the near term, supported by robust FDI inflows and foreign borrowing by domestic banks.

According to analysts from Fitch Solutions, the đồng will weaken only slightly over the remainder of 2019. In a report released last week, the analysts also revised their 2019 average forecast to VNĐ23,300 per US dollar, from VNĐ23,440 per dollar in April, in light of the unit’s stability over the first quarter of 2019.

Meanwhile, analysts from Saigon Securities Incorporation said as that there are not many changes in the international market and the supply and demand of foreign currency in the local market is balanced, the USD/VNĐ exchange rate will remain stable, fluctuating at around VNĐ23,200 per dollar.

The đồng has remained stable against the dollar at around VNĐ23,200 per dollar since April and has averaged VNĐ23,250 per dollar in the year to date. The experts attributed the stability to an expectation that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows would remain strong in 2019.

Given US-China trade tension is unlikely to dissipate in the near future, it is expected that businesses with supply chains concentrated in China are likely to continue diversifying across the rest of Asia. Việt Nam will continue to benefit from this shift in supply chains due to its investment and trade friendly policies, and its low cost, young and large labour force.

In the long-term outlook, Fitch forecast the đồng to persist on a depreciatory trend against the US dollar due to higher inflation in Việt Nam versus the US and the đồng's overvaluation. “We forecast the unit to average VNĐ23,475 per cent in 2020, slightly weaker versus our 2019 forecast,” Fitch analysts said. LINK

Vietnam surpasses Hong Kong in port throughput

22nd July, 2019

Việt Nam’s container throughput surpassed Hong Kong’s in the first half of this year, possibly in part due to trade diversion amid the trade war between China and the US, reported the Chinese news site Caixin Global.

According to the data from Hong Kong Maritime and Port Board, in the first half of 2019, Hong Kong saw a container throughput of 9.06 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a year-on-year decrease of 8.1 per cent.

Data from the Vietnam Maritime Administration showed that from January to June, Việt Nam recorded 9.1 million TEUs in container throughput, up 3 per cent compared to the same period last year.

In the first four months of 2019, the total value of Việt Nam’s goods exports rose 6.5 per cent year-on-year, according to the General Department of Vietnam Customs.

Việt Nam’s role as a “transfer terminal” contributed largely to the country’s strong export growth, Shen Jianguang, JD Digits’ chief economist, said in a note on Caixin Global.

As of June, Hong Kong had seen year-on-year declines in throughput volume for 17 consecutive months, and saw the sharpest fall of 17.9 per cent in February, Caixin Global reported. LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps
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