Whatever economic events are happening this week are surely gonna be overshadowed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Pelosi set a Tuesday deadline over the weekend about the 2nd stimulus deal. The way I actually understand it is: she and the democrats want a higher amount -- $2.2 trillion -- to be passed before the US elections, so that whoever's gonna win by November (most likely Biden) won't have to carry the blame regarding any repercussions about that 2nd stimulus.
Trump and the Republicans, on the other hand, conservatively agree on $1.8 trillion, which they hope is reasonable and hopefully won't cause the US dollar to plunge down further, but Pelosi insisted that amount isn't enough at all among other things they don't agree on in the deal.
Related post: Analysis About the US Dollar in the Coming Weeks Ahead
Looking at it realistically, it's more probable that they won't reach a deal and the next stimulus from the US government is going to be pushed back to 2021. Hopefully, this won't be one of the major cause of possible civil unrest or anything of that sort especially with the coming Christmas season, and people look forward optimistically instead towards a working vaccine soon while looking for other means to earn money online and staying safe.
Side note: we really need to learn celebrating Christmas from a non-materialistic standpoint especially I'm highly worried about the usual increased crime and robbery around this season too (except for some parts of the world thanks to more awareness through media and increased vigilance by the police authorities), and pair that with high unemployment because of this pandemic-- it's a lethal combination.
Anyway, here are some other important economic events for this week:
- RBA releasing its Monetary Policy Minutes (in just a few minutes as I type this post lol -- I expect RBA to continue being dovish though as they look into buying more bonds and implementing more quantitative easing, while considering extending support to the labor market)
- UK recently implemented its Three-Tier lockdown and though its effect might not reflect right away on upcoming CPI and PMI figures later this week, it most likely will by next month
- Canada's month-on-month CPI change and Retail Sales figures to be released soon (but expected to be steady)
- New Zealand CPI change expected to be higher than prior quarter's
- EU's PMI figures which are all forecasted to be conservatively lower than prior period especially it is also less likely for the UK and EU to meet post-Brexit deal any time soon
Disclaimer: This only serves as my general analysis and guide for the week, based on current market situation, but it's best to do your own research and refer to our Disclaimer policy here. This shouldn't be taken as financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Expecting a dovish RBA to continue driving AUD down, while chance for EUR to be in a suspended/wait mode state (before a probably bearish slide down resumes if not later this week after PMI, then next week), while GBP starts the week with a promising recovery.
AUDCAD - Wait for rally near 0.94 or ride bearish momentum up to 0.92
AUDCHF - Sell near 0.65
AUDJPY - Ride possible short-term rally from 74.450 or just wait
AUDNZD - Continue selling down to 1.05790-1.06
AUDUSD - Wait near 0.71
CADCHF - Wait near 0.695
CADJPY - Wait near 80
CHFJPY - Wait for better entry near 114 or lower then buy up to 117-118
EURAUD - Wait for confirmed range-bound bearish bounce from 1.655 - 1.668 then sell
EURCAD - Wait near 1.54
EURCHF - Wait for possible rally near 1.075 and confirmation before selling again down to 1.06315-1.065
EURGBP - Wait for confirmed breakout past 0.90 then sell
EURJPY - Wait near 124
EURNZD - Wait near 1.77
EURUSD - Wait near 1.175
GBPAUD - Wait for better entry near 1.81 then ride short-term rally up to 1.85-1.87
GBPCAD - Wait near 1.71
GBPCHF - Wait near 1.186
GBPJPY - Wait for better entry near 135 then buy
GBPNZD - Wait near1.96
GBPUSD - Wait near 1.30
NZDCAD - Wait near 0.87
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.605
NZDJPY - Wait near 0.699
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.665
USDCAD - Ride bearish momentum up to 1.305-1.31
USDCHF - Wait near 0.91
USDJPY - Wait near 105.35
XAUUSD - Wait for better entry near 1900 or lower before riding trend up to 1965
XAGUSD - Wait near 25
XTIUSD - Wait for confirmed bearish bounce near 41.345 before selling
USDZAR - Wait for bullish confirmation near 16.2 before buying
USDMXN - Wait for bearish confirmation and ride short-term recovery towards 21.5-22, else ride bearish trend and possible break out up to 20
Feature image by Elena M. of Unsplash.
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